In crucial legislative elections, French voters have opted to give a wide leftist coalition the most parliamentary seats, preventing the far right from taking control, according to election results.
However, no party was able to secure an absolute majority, leaving France in an uncharted territory. The extreme right came in third place, nevertheless significantly expanding the number of seats it possesses in the National Assembly, the lower chamber of parliament in France, behind President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition.
No obvious candidate has surfaced to be the prime minister of the future. Macron, who is attending a NATO conference in Washington this week, says he will wait to determine what to do next. On Monday, the newly elected lawmakers will be able to begin working in Parliament; their first session will begin on July 18.
A hung parliament?
After the elections, three significant political groups formed, although none of them had nearly enough seats—at least 289 out of 577—to hold the majority.
Of the two chambers of parliament of France, the National Assembly is the more significant. It has the last word over the conservative-dominated Senate when it comes to passing laws.
Though this is not unheard of in other European nations, there has never been a parliament in modern France without a dominating party.
In a climate like this, legislators must work across party lines to reach consensus on policies and laws. That is particularly difficult in France because of its contentious politics and severe disagreements over immigration, taxation, and Middle East policy.
This implies that pro-business initiatives, including as the pledge to reform unemployment benefits, made by Macron’s centrist partners would not be able to be carried out. It may also make budget passage more challenging.
Can Macron make a deal with the left ?
Macron could try to reach an agreement to form a coalition government with the moderate left. France does not have a history of these kinds of agreements, so if these talks do place, they are predicted to be quite challenging. It may be a loose, informal relationship, which would probably be brittle.
Macron has made it clear that he would not collaborate with the extreme-left France Unbowed party, but he could be willing to help the Socialists and the Greens.
Nonetheless, they could reject it outright. A rule that would have limited workers’ entitlement to unemployment benefits was deferred by his government last week; this was seen as a leftward step.
Macron may form an expert-led administration that is not connected to any political party if he is unable to reach a political agreement. A government of the kind would probably handle daily matters to keep France operational.Complicating matters: Parliamentary approval would be needed for any of those possibilities.
Is the left divided?
Divides among the left have been tearing it apart in recent months, particularly following Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7. Other more moderate leftists have harshly attacked France Unbowed for its position on the war. Leaders on the far left have vehemently denounced Israel’s battle with Hamas and charged the organization of committing genocide against the Palestinian people.
They vehemently refute any charges of antisemitism that they have received. In the elections held last month for the European Union, the Socialists campaigned on their own and received almost 14% of the vote, compared to less than 10% for France Unbowed and 5% for the Greens.
However, Macron’s decision to hold early parliamentary elections forced leftist leaders to swiftly reach a consensus on the creation of the New Popular Front, a new alliance.
Their united program calls for lifting Macron’s pension reform, which raised the retirement age from 62 to 64, increasing the minimum wage from 1,400 to 1,600 euros, and freezing the cost of electricity and necessities. The financial markets are alarmed by all of it.
Is an interim administration required?
On Monday, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced his resignation. He said that he is prepared to hold the position for whatever long it takes to complete the next Olympics in Paris. While more political talks take place, current matters would be managed by an interim administration.
Before deciding on the new administration, Macron’s office states that he would “wait for the new National Assembly to organise itself.”
Macron is not required by law to select a prime minister from the party with the majority in parliament, nor is there a set deadline for when he must do so.
Macron, what about him?
The president has stated that he will not resign before the conclusion of his term, which expires in 2027. Macron exits the election weakened, unable to enact his own objectives and lacking a majority.
He is still in charge of drafting and ratifying international treaties and retains some authority over military, European affairs, and foreign policy in accordance with the French constitution. In addition to leading the military forces of the nation, the president is also in possession of the nuclear codes.
It’s possible that the incoming prime minister will prioritize domestic politics over challenging Macron’s authority over defense and foreign policy, either because of incapacity or unwillingness. The prime minister leads the government, presents laws, and is answerable to parliament.
